MSNBC just had the governor of Pennsylvania on and he said that because the state Republican party chose to run some inflammatory commercials in the final days about Jeremiah Wright, African American turnout has been off the charts today across the state, east and west. Obama is already looking to win the Keystone State, turning out to be this year’s Ohio ’04 and Florida ’00, by double digits.
If you’ve been following Nate Silver’s analysis on fivethirtyeight.com, you know that McCain’s chances of getting to 270 electoral votes drops dramatically if he loses Pennsylvania. He’d essentially have to win every state Bush took versus Kerry and Gore, including Colorado. And as a Coloradan, I can pretty much guarantee he’s not getting Colorado. So if McCain loses Pennsylvania, he’s as good as sunk before the ballots west of the Mississippi are even counted.